Economic Recovery: Process, Priorities, Planning & Partnerships during COVID 19 – Part 1

[vc_row][vc_column][thim-heading title=”Economic Recovery PART 1: PROCESS – Recovery Continuum Phasing and COVID 19″ title_uppercase=”” clone_title=”” line=””][vc_column_text]

The Recovery Continuum is the process a community phases when impacted by a disaster, which could be a natural disaster, terrorist attack and acts of war, or the pandemic we are facing today. In any disaster, communities will recover in distinct phases which include preparedness, response, and long-term recovery. However, even though these phases include different and sometimes specific response and recovery efforts and actions, the phases are interconnected and overlap considerably as illustrated in the graphic below.

The recovery process, according to FEMA, is best described as “a sequence of interdependent and often concurrent activities that progressively advance a community toward its planned recovery outcomes. Decisions made and priorities set by a community pre-disaster and early in the recovery process have a cascading effect on the nature, speed, and inclusiveness of recovery.”[1] The figure below illustrates the phases of recovery and how those phases are interconnected from before an incident occurs through to the months or years of long term recovery.

[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”7441″ img_size=”large” alignment=”center” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]

SOURCE: FEMA National Disaster Recovery Framework

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Short-term and intermediate strategies commence during the response phase following a disaster and set the foundation for longer-term economic recovery. Short term strategies begin developing during the days and weeks following a disaster and intermediate strategies begin to take place weeks and months following the disaster. Long term recovery generally takes months, but in the case of a major disaster or disruption, recovery can take years. The COVID 19 disruption is unique with recovery phasing due to the ongoing disruptive impacts beginning in late February and early March depending on local emergency responses as illustrated in the New York Times graphic below.

[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”7468″ img_size=”large” alignment=”center” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]

SOURCE: The New York Times

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Nearly three quarters of Americans are living under state or local stay-at-home mandates which have a disruptive impact of an ongoing and unknown length of time. The New York Times reported “This means at least 316 million people in at least 42 states, three counties, 10 cities, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are being urged to stay home.”[4]    The “COVID 19 hotspots” and stay-at-home mandates remain ongoing as of April 22 and will continue to take place over several weeks, if not months. The “disaster phase” of the COVID 19 disruption is much longer and wide-spread with impact than any other disruption. Therefore, the COVID 19 response phase strategies are taking place simultaneously to the “disaster phase” as shown in the Disaster Continuum figure timeline.

This is an important distinction in understanding the complexities involved with the COVID 19 response and recovery process. Currently, the federal government is utilizing FEMA’s National RESPONSE Framework (not to be confused with FEMA’s National Disaster RECOVERY FRAMEWORK). The two frameworks are clearly interrelated and aligned, but the Response Framework addresses immediate response strategies. FEMA defines the National Response Framework: “The National Response Framework (NRF) provides foundational emergency management doctrine for how the Nation responds to all types of incidents. The NRF is built on scalable, flexible, and adaptable concepts identified in the National Incident Management System (NIMS) to align key roles and responsibilities across the Nation. The structures, roles, and responsibilities described in this Framework can be partially or fully implemented in the context of a threat or hazard, in anticipation of a significant event, or in response to an incident. Implementation of the structures and procedures described herein allows for a scaled response, delivery of specific resources and capabilities, and a level of coordination appropriate to each incident.”[5]

The graphic below from FEMA’s National Response Framework illustrates the focus on life-saving stabilization efforts during the response phase. The response and recovery efforts both require intergovernmental and private sector coordination addressing the needs of the community; however, the recovery strategies focus on long-term resilience. The phases of the disaster continuum process, while interrelated, involve different approaches and strategies. In the case of COVID 19, the response framework and the recovery framework guidelines and principles will have significant overlap due to the timeline and geographic magnitude of the disruption.

[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”7469″ img_size=”large” alignment=”center” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]

SOURCE: FEMA National Response Framework (4th ed)

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Utilizing FEMA’s National Disaster Recovery Framework (NDRF) structure and principles ensure that the community has the ability to achieve recovery following any incident regardless of size or scale, and considers the full spectrum of threats and hazards, including natural, technological/accidental, and adversarial/human-caused. The NDRF was specifically designed to “ensure that all communities can coordinate recovery efforts to address their unique needs, capabilities, demographics, and governing structures. It encourages an inclusive recovery process, engaging traditional and nontraditional whole community partners, and provides a strategic and national approach to lead, manage, and coordinate recovery efforts while increasing the resilience of our communities.“[6]

The COVID 19 economic recovery will be further customized based on the economic impact, exposed existing vulnerabilities, and the nimble depth and breadth of leadership of the impacted communities throughout the continuum. And while the preparedness planning phase takes place prior to a disaster when a community prepares a hazard mitigation and preparedness plan required by FEMA, preparedness is an ongoing process. The impacted community will need to continue preparedness functions to mitigate additional impacts from disasters that could take place during the recovery phase. Events such as massive power outages, acts of terror, or natural disasters which will further complicate recovery planning. Communities need to continue to incorporate lessons learned from their ongoing preparedness phase based on the impacts of COVID 19 and related actions such as mandatory community lockdowns.

Another unique characteristic of the COVID 19 recovery is that the economic impacts will hit communities and states that are not (or will not be) identified as “COVID 19 hotspots.” The tourism industry is a great example to illustrate this concept. Tourism and hospitality businesses are typically the hardest hit industries following any disaster; not only due to the results of the disaster, but the perception that the area has not recovered, even if this is not the case. This is why so many economic recovery strategies include tourism marketing campaigns to brand the area as “open for business.”

Tourism-based economies have seen the most significant economic declines whether they are identified “COVID 19 hotspots” or not. “Looking at the impact across geographies tourism-reliant states like Nevada, Hawaii, Montana, Florida, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Louisiana are likely to be hardest hit in percentage terms (for employment loss).” [8]To put this in perspective, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC)[9], travel and tourism makes up one in ten jobs worldwide, generating over 10% of global GDP. However, WTTC reports that the “domino effect” of COVID 19 on the travel and tourism industry will result in a loss of 1 million jobs a day. There will likely be a slow return to travel in the recovery phases, not only due to fear of COVID 19 as a disease, but the impact COVID 19 will have on consumer confidence and job security impacting discretionary spending.

Economic Recovery Strategies during the phases illustrated in the Recovery Continuum will be utilized regardless of the location or type of disaster, or in the case of COVID 19, the national impact. However, economic recovery actions are particularly unique to local communities and ecosystems. Analysis of econometrics, typically lagging indicators, will be an ongoing task to measure economic impact during all phases. Data will also need supported by comprehensive qualitative information gathered not only from economic development and private sector stakeholders, but by representatives from interrelated recovery functions (including housing, infrastructure, community planning, and natural and cultural resources, etc.) to move forward with comprehensive economic recovery strategies and plans.

The principles, guidelines, and foundation for economic recovery as defined by the National Disaster Recovery Framework and the Disaster Recovery Continuum will apply to the COVID 19 response and recovery. That being said, this will be unlike any other recovery we have experienced as the:

• Impact is not focused on one region, but the entire nation as well as the international community
• The disaster phase is ongoing and longer than typical
• The response and recovery phases will be more interconnected with the disaster phase
• Areas identified as most impacted (“COVID 19 hotspots”) are not the only communities that will require significant economic recovery strategies as economic decline will be experienced in hard-hit industry-reliant communities and economically vulnerable communities as well

Short and long-term economic recovery strategies, aligned with the disaster recovery framework, will require unique and customized priorities and approaches for each community.

[1] FEMA National Disaster Recovery Framework overview

[2] National Disaster Recovery Framework (FEMA, September 2011, 9(p. 8. )

[3] See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home, By Sarah Mervosh, Denise Lu and Vanessa Swales, The New York Times, Updated April 20,2020.

[4] See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home, By Sarah Mervosh, Denise Lu and Vanessa Swales, The New York Times, Updated April 20,2020.

[5] National Response Framework Fourth Edition October 28, 2019 P. 1

[6] FEMA National Response Framework media library

[7] National Disaster Recovery Framework Second Edition June 2016 p.ii

[8] Lives and livelihoods: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID 19 on US workers, April 2020, McKinsey Global Institute, p. 4

[9] World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC)

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]